Prowl and Pounce

Last week, the UK Prime Minister was taunted by Tim Yeo MP as to whether he is a man or a mouse in relation to making a decision over a third runway for Heathrow. This week I would like to challenge the UK government on the same issue with another animal metaphor. Is the UK government a flock of sheep or a pride of lions? When I observe the government dealing with aviation policy – shifting this way then that, one moment influenced by environmental policy and the next responding to demands from the business lobby – it looks like a flock of sheep without a sense of direction. I would like to see government acting like a pride of lions, eyeing up the possibilities and then going in for the kill.

Aviation is affected by a range of issues; at the core are two sets of predictions. First, aviation is predicted to grow substantially and this is presented as vital to the economy to ensure that the UK remains well connected to the global market. Second, the emissions from aviation are predicted to grow exponentially increasing their contribution to climate change. The government is torn between supporting growth to help the economy and controlling emissions to counter climate change. It wants to do both, of course, but in the blinkered world of conventional narrow economic analysis it is seen as one or the other. The flock of sheep rushes from one side of the field to the other depending on which lobby group, or focus group, is shouting loudest at the time. The result is procrastination and a policy vacuum which serves no one.

 A pride of lions would prowl around the issues and decide where to attack before pouncing. The argument from economists – that we need more conventional aviation – is a distraction. The prey to hunt down is the blockage that prevents the development of green aviation (within a sustainable economy). In hunting down the problem, it is worth scanning the bigger picture. Conventional aircraft will continue to have a role for many decades but conventional flying will become much more expensive, leading to much reduced capacity (and much reduced emissions).  This part of the new landscape for aviation is clear; the other side of the argument – as to what will evolve to satisfy the demand for low-cost air travel – is much more interesting. New designs of air vehicles that are slower and more efficient will come off the drawing board into development and deployed into the fleets. These will need different ground handling facilities, so planning airport capacity is not simply about numbers of terminals and runways but requires a fundamental rewrite of the design codes for airports.

 

None of this will happen whilst the old economic model of growth based on tax-free fuel dominates aviation. The lions should single out the weakest link in the herd of issues and circle around the blockage in international politics, and pounce, taking down the tax exemption for aviation fuel. The problem moves from an impossible dilemma into a difficult but workable transition to sustainable aviation.

 

I hope the Prime Minister proves to be a man and not a mouse, and his government lions not sheep.