What is all this fuss over global warming? Last month was the coldest December in Britain since records began. We now have proof that global warming is a hoax.
Credit should go to the media that this is not the message that has been broadcast. Those UK climate sceptics who want to use this cold spell as ammunition have either understood that this would be wrong or the media have ignored them. There is good reason for this; it looks as if, on a global basis, 2010 was also the warmest year on record.
The UK's harsh weather was caused by unusual conditions with a sustained high pressure weather system that blocked mild westerly winds and brought cold air south from the Arctic. We know that one month, in one region, is not an indicator of global climate trends, but the cold does enter our subconscious. Global warming loses its urgency when the current struggle is to stay warm and keep from sliding off icy roads.
A better way to view climate change is the increased variability (such as the jet stream coming down from the north instead of from the more usual west) and more incidents of extreme weather events such as the floods in Australia.
We should not be looking for a clear point at which the climate flips to something very different and we can say that the climate has turned. If we reach such a point, there will be no way back. There will be an increasing number of weather events to support the predictions of the scientists. Does each of us need to have their house flooded and suffer from food shortages before calling for real action?
We can see the dangers of continuing to rely on the fossil-fuel economy. Of course it must be dismantled and replaced by something different. Yes, it will be hard to transform the economy; it gets harder every day we delay. 2011 should be the year of real action...
Friday, 7 January 2011
Sunday, 19 December 2010
Surviving the Climate
Heathrow has been closed all day to give the ground crew time to clear all the snow and ice from the taxi ways and aircraft parking areas hoping to resume normal operations tomorrow.
This is unusually cold weather for Britain. Unlike other countries of northern Europe, we are not geared up to cope. The maritime climate of our islands usually protects us from extreme cold (and from extreme heat). As the climate becomes less predictable with more extreme events Britain should fare better than most countries.
This cold weather reminds us how reliant we have become on the complex infrastructure of society. To stay warm, the central heating must keep running which means the gas must keep flowing. Gone are the days when the UK had enough gas under the North Sea to have energy security under our control. We now rely on pipelines that cross Europe from Russia and on LPG tankers from the Middle-East.
There was a time when we would have gathered and stored enough wood to keep the fires burning until the spring. Survival was under our control. The food stored locally would tide us over until the next crop. Now the markets are global and we rely on global capacity for our survival. Whilst oil is plentiful and food is produced in abundance, prices are driven down. As oil demand exceeds supply and a series of droughts hit simultaneously on world agriculture we will wish we had not become so reliant on long and complex supply chains.
We can use this insight into a scenario of the future to improve energy and food security or wait until the crisis strikes...
The world is bunkering down for a festive Christmas with all the food we can eat and all the drink we can drink. As we enjoy this season we should reflect on how fortunate we are and when the New Year comes have a thought for ensuring that the future is safe in our hands.
This is unusually cold weather for Britain. Unlike other countries of northern Europe, we are not geared up to cope. The maritime climate of our islands usually protects us from extreme cold (and from extreme heat). As the climate becomes less predictable with more extreme events Britain should fare better than most countries.
This cold weather reminds us how reliant we have become on the complex infrastructure of society. To stay warm, the central heating must keep running which means the gas must keep flowing. Gone are the days when the UK had enough gas under the North Sea to have energy security under our control. We now rely on pipelines that cross Europe from Russia and on LPG tankers from the Middle-East.
There was a time when we would have gathered and stored enough wood to keep the fires burning until the spring. Survival was under our control. The food stored locally would tide us over until the next crop. Now the markets are global and we rely on global capacity for our survival. Whilst oil is plentiful and food is produced in abundance, prices are driven down. As oil demand exceeds supply and a series of droughts hit simultaneously on world agriculture we will wish we had not become so reliant on long and complex supply chains.
We can use this insight into a scenario of the future to improve energy and food security or wait until the crisis strikes...
The world is bunkering down for a festive Christmas with all the food we can eat and all the drink we can drink. As we enjoy this season we should reflect on how fortunate we are and when the New Year comes have a thought for ensuring that the future is safe in our hands.
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Cancun Climate Talks RIP
The Cancun climate talks delivered what was expected: a bland communiqué to hide the lack of progress. The world still does not have a plan to constrain carbon dioxide emissions. The Times got it right:
‘...climate talks have assumed a life of their own and many of the 15,000 delegates are already inquiring about the best hotel rooms in Durban.’
The Times 11 December
Of course we hope that over the next year the talks find a solution to addressing the risks of climate change. Wishful thinking is not enough. Whilst there is belief that the talks can succeed, the issue is parked to await the outcome, delaying the search for real solutions.
The talks are flawed because the discussion is focused on targets, not solutions. It is like trying to persuade a heroin addict to promise to inject fewer fixes without curing the addiction. The truth is obscured. The truth is that the world is addicted to fossil fuel. World leaders have to wake up to the reality of dismantling an economy built on cheap fossil fuel and build a new sustainable economy powered by renewable energy.
Targets are not enough. The entire edifice of the modern globalised economy has to be looked at and revised. If this is accepted, the discussion leads to a very uncomfortable place. The economic success of recent decades is put at risk. Solutions do not come easy; but there are solutions. The search for green outcomes in the real world requires rethinking the priorities for society and changing the principles with which we manage the economy.
The climate talks should continue in South Africa, a year from now, but we should not be fooled into expecting too much. The solution is to take fossil fuel out of society and out of industry. The implications are massive; the investment required is huge; the challenge is immense.
If you are one of the 15,000 people about to book a hotel room in Durban for December 2011, be prepared to argue for deep-rooted change. If you plan to continue to argue around the periphery of the issues then you should forego the flight and stay at home.
‘...climate talks have assumed a life of their own and many of the 15,000 delegates are already inquiring about the best hotel rooms in Durban.’
The Times 11 December
Of course we hope that over the next year the talks find a solution to addressing the risks of climate change. Wishful thinking is not enough. Whilst there is belief that the talks can succeed, the issue is parked to await the outcome, delaying the search for real solutions.
The talks are flawed because the discussion is focused on targets, not solutions. It is like trying to persuade a heroin addict to promise to inject fewer fixes without curing the addiction. The truth is obscured. The truth is that the world is addicted to fossil fuel. World leaders have to wake up to the reality of dismantling an economy built on cheap fossil fuel and build a new sustainable economy powered by renewable energy.
Targets are not enough. The entire edifice of the modern globalised economy has to be looked at and revised. If this is accepted, the discussion leads to a very uncomfortable place. The economic success of recent decades is put at risk. Solutions do not come easy; but there are solutions. The search for green outcomes in the real world requires rethinking the priorities for society and changing the principles with which we manage the economy.
The climate talks should continue in South Africa, a year from now, but we should not be fooled into expecting too much. The solution is to take fossil fuel out of society and out of industry. The implications are massive; the investment required is huge; the challenge is immense.
If you are one of the 15,000 people about to book a hotel room in Durban for December 2011, be prepared to argue for deep-rooted change. If you plan to continue to argue around the periphery of the issues then you should forego the flight and stay at home.
Monday, 6 December 2010
21st Century Challenges
Can the UK ever be Sustainable?
That was the questions posed at the Royal Geographical Society under their excellent series of events titled ‘21st Century Challenges’ putting the spotlight on the big important questions of today.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of Marks and Spencer, said:
“In today’s climate, more so than ever, putting sustainability at the very heart of your business is not just the right thing to do ethically, it makes commercial sense too. A sustainable business means a business that can thrive in the long term - it forces us to look over the horizon, accelerate innovation and respond to the challenges that lie ahead.”
Mr Benn, former Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said:
“Our biggest challenge as a world is to learn to live sustainably. In the years ahead, families, communities, businesses and countries that work out how to do this will be in a much stronger position. We need to help each other to do this.”
Andy Hobsbawm, founder of Green Thing, said:
“Creativity has a huge role to play in changing the way people think about the resources they have at their disposal. We aim to turn green living from something people feel they ‘ought’ to do into something they ‘want’ to do.”
These sound bites are from people with a track record of taking action and deserve to be listened to.
Meanwhile, I noticed that Colombia's president, Juan Manuel Santos, has been forced to cancel his scheduled trip to the United Nations' climate change conference this week because of devastating flooding – even though global warming itself could be causing the disaster his country faces.
"I cancelled the trip I was taking to Cancun, [Mexico] ... to attend the international conference on climate change, which is what is affecting us, but I cancelled this meeting," President Juan Manuel Santos said in a statement reported by CNN.
Colombia is considering declaring a state of emergency to devote more resources to response and rescue efforts, Santos said, noting the number of victims throughout the country could climb to 2 million.
Columbia’s president has put action before further talks – he has a point.
That was the questions posed at the Royal Geographical Society under their excellent series of events titled ‘21st Century Challenges’ putting the spotlight on the big important questions of today.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of Marks and Spencer, said:
“In today’s climate, more so than ever, putting sustainability at the very heart of your business is not just the right thing to do ethically, it makes commercial sense too. A sustainable business means a business that can thrive in the long term - it forces us to look over the horizon, accelerate innovation and respond to the challenges that lie ahead.”
Mr Benn, former Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said:
“Our biggest challenge as a world is to learn to live sustainably. In the years ahead, families, communities, businesses and countries that work out how to do this will be in a much stronger position. We need to help each other to do this.”
Andy Hobsbawm, founder of Green Thing, said:
“Creativity has a huge role to play in changing the way people think about the resources they have at their disposal. We aim to turn green living from something people feel they ‘ought’ to do into something they ‘want’ to do.”
These sound bites are from people with a track record of taking action and deserve to be listened to.
Meanwhile, I noticed that Colombia's president, Juan Manuel Santos, has been forced to cancel his scheduled trip to the United Nations' climate change conference this week because of devastating flooding – even though global warming itself could be causing the disaster his country faces.
"I cancelled the trip I was taking to Cancun, [Mexico] ... to attend the international conference on climate change, which is what is affecting us, but I cancelled this meeting," President Juan Manuel Santos said in a statement reported by CNN.
Colombia is considering declaring a state of emergency to devote more resources to response and rescue efforts, Santos said, noting the number of victims throughout the country could climb to 2 million.
Columbia’s president has put action before further talks – he has a point.
Monday, 29 November 2010
The Sustainable Revolution at a Tipping Point
We will look back from the future and identify 2010 as the year when the Sustainable Revolution began. The group of us who are interested in sustainability, and debate what it means, is much larger than five years ago. That is a start but hardly a revolution. There are two incidents in 2010 that will mark 2010 as special; one big and one small.
The big change is the euro crisis. Anyone who thinks the crisis has been solved is deluded. There will be change, and like a revolution it will not be easy to control. Any one of the highly indebted southern European countries could be the first to cave into market pressure and be forced to default on its sovereign debt. In such circumstances this would surely mean also leaving the euro. The change could be more controlled, and much more dramatic, such as Germany deciding to pull out of the euro project.
What has this to do with sustainability? This is the start of understanding that deep rooted sustainability is about fundamental change to society and the economy. Before the financial crisis I wrote about the globalised financial system with the words that ‘more connections bring greater resilience and reduce the chances of collapse, but if collapse does come, there will be no hiding from the consequences.’ More recently, before the euro crisis, I speculated that ‘one or more members will explore the possibility of exit to regain greater financial control.’ These thoughts are not reaction to crisis but come from a carefully considered analysis of the economics of stable sustainable societies.
The euro crisis could be the start of reconfiguring global finance to build a more resilient global economy. This is the big change and a crucial aspect of the Sustainable Revolution.
The small change is David Cameron’s instruction to the Office for National Statistics to devise a measure of quality of life. This does not seem like an important issue, but it is a stage on the journey towards a sustainable society. We must bring ecosystem integrity on to the balance sheet and devise appropriate measures for society that include health and happiness. The Sustainable Revolution will make the old measures of development based on pure economic measures, such as GDP, obsolescent.
What does the Sustainable Revolution mean for policy makers, business and the general public?
Sustainability can be seen in many different ways. For some people it is imperative that we reduce the impact we are having on the environment. Other people see the marketing possibilities or the need to protect and enhancing the reputation of business. For yet others it is all about government regulations. All of these are true but more than anything else sustainability has to be at the core of every important decision taken.
We must take off the blindfold of how society operates now, to see the world as it should be, then look for the opportunities to make the transition. The Sustainable Revolution is finally upon us.
The big change is the euro crisis. Anyone who thinks the crisis has been solved is deluded. There will be change, and like a revolution it will not be easy to control. Any one of the highly indebted southern European countries could be the first to cave into market pressure and be forced to default on its sovereign debt. In such circumstances this would surely mean also leaving the euro. The change could be more controlled, and much more dramatic, such as Germany deciding to pull out of the euro project.
What has this to do with sustainability? This is the start of understanding that deep rooted sustainability is about fundamental change to society and the economy. Before the financial crisis I wrote about the globalised financial system with the words that ‘more connections bring greater resilience and reduce the chances of collapse, but if collapse does come, there will be no hiding from the consequences.’ More recently, before the euro crisis, I speculated that ‘one or more members will explore the possibility of exit to regain greater financial control.’ These thoughts are not reaction to crisis but come from a carefully considered analysis of the economics of stable sustainable societies.
The euro crisis could be the start of reconfiguring global finance to build a more resilient global economy. This is the big change and a crucial aspect of the Sustainable Revolution.
The small change is David Cameron’s instruction to the Office for National Statistics to devise a measure of quality of life. This does not seem like an important issue, but it is a stage on the journey towards a sustainable society. We must bring ecosystem integrity on to the balance sheet and devise appropriate measures for society that include health and happiness. The Sustainable Revolution will make the old measures of development based on pure economic measures, such as GDP, obsolescent.
What does the Sustainable Revolution mean for policy makers, business and the general public?
Sustainability can be seen in many different ways. For some people it is imperative that we reduce the impact we are having on the environment. Other people see the marketing possibilities or the need to protect and enhancing the reputation of business. For yet others it is all about government regulations. All of these are true but more than anything else sustainability has to be at the core of every important decision taken.
We must take off the blindfold of how society operates now, to see the world as it should be, then look for the opportunities to make the transition. The Sustainable Revolution is finally upon us.
Monday, 22 November 2010
Record Breaking Ambition
South Africa is in the news for a record team effort in stone clearance of the mudflats at Hakskeen Pan. A track 20 km long and 1 km wide has to be cleared of stones ready for an attempt on the world land speed record in 2012.
Richard Noble and his driver Andy Green already hold the world land speed record of 763mph set in the Thrust SSC in 1997. They now plan to put the record out of reach by breaking the 1,000 mph barrier. This exceeds even the official air speed record at low altitude (no longer competed for). The project is being run on a shoe-string budget of approximately equivalent to three week’s expenditure by an F1 racing team. Why put so much effort into, and take so much risk, to break a record you already hold?
This project is both ludicrous and inspiring. If we can do this we can do almost anything. Making houses energy efficient, de-carbonising the energy supply and making transportation sustainable, are easy tasks in comparison. The Bloodhound, as the ‘car’ is called, is not to be admired for its fuel efficiency or miles-per-gallon. It is to be admired as a statement of human ambition, innovation and drive. We need more of this...
Richard Noble and his driver Andy Green already hold the world land speed record of 763mph set in the Thrust SSC in 1997. They now plan to put the record out of reach by breaking the 1,000 mph barrier. This exceeds even the official air speed record at low altitude (no longer competed for). The project is being run on a shoe-string budget of approximately equivalent to three week’s expenditure by an F1 racing team. Why put so much effort into, and take so much risk, to break a record you already hold?
This project is both ludicrous and inspiring. If we can do this we can do almost anything. Making houses energy efficient, de-carbonising the energy supply and making transportation sustainable, are easy tasks in comparison. The Bloodhound, as the ‘car’ is called, is not to be admired for its fuel efficiency or miles-per-gallon. It is to be admired as a statement of human ambition, innovation and drive. We need more of this...
Monday, 8 November 2010
Biodiversity – The Mouse in the Corner
Two weeks ago I wrote about biodiversity being the ‘Elephant in the Room’ and hoped that the Nagoya Biodiversity Summit might signal the start of ‘discussion of real-world solutions to the world’s most pressing problems.’ I hoped for too much. The world is regarding the vital issue of biodiversity loss as if it was only a mouse in the corner –easily trapped and killed at a time our choosing.
The Biodiversity summit has come and gone. A new ten year strategic plan has been agreed. This appears to be action. It is worth looking back on the previous decade to see the progress made against the targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity’s COP6 in The Hague, Netherlands in 2002. The Parties responded by adopting the 2010 target of significantly slowing biodiversity loss by the end of the decade. The conference President and Netherlands State Secretary of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries Geke Faber stated that it was necessary to move from policy development and dialogue to action. How have we succeeded eight years later?
On 1 November 2010 Mr Ahmaed Djoghlaf, the Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity was back at the Hague at the Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. His words should have sent shocks waves around the world. He reported:
During this 2010 International Year of Biodiversity, the news is not good. In May the third edition of Global Biodiversity Outlook showed that species worldwide continue to disappear at up to 1,000 times the natural background rate of extinction. The report further warns that without concerted action massive further loss of biodiversity is projected to occur before the end of the century and that ecosystems are approaching tipping points beyond which they will be irreversibly degraded, with dire consequences for human wellbeing.
The talking continues. The talk of moving to action, is just talk.
The Biodiversity summit has come and gone. A new ten year strategic plan has been agreed. This appears to be action. It is worth looking back on the previous decade to see the progress made against the targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity’s COP6 in The Hague, Netherlands in 2002. The Parties responded by adopting the 2010 target of significantly slowing biodiversity loss by the end of the decade. The conference President and Netherlands State Secretary of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries Geke Faber stated that it was necessary to move from policy development and dialogue to action. How have we succeeded eight years later?
On 1 November 2010 Mr Ahmaed Djoghlaf, the Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity was back at the Hague at the Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. His words should have sent shocks waves around the world. He reported:
During this 2010 International Year of Biodiversity, the news is not good. In May the third edition of Global Biodiversity Outlook showed that species worldwide continue to disappear at up to 1,000 times the natural background rate of extinction. The report further warns that without concerted action massive further loss of biodiversity is projected to occur before the end of the century and that ecosystems are approaching tipping points beyond which they will be irreversibly degraded, with dire consequences for human wellbeing.
The talking continues. The talk of moving to action, is just talk.
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