Aviation Policy

The UK government has difficult decisions to take over aviation policy. The shape and nature of aviation up to the middle of this century will depend on the decisions taken over the next year. This will have huge environmental, social and economic consequences.

 Aviation accounts currently for about 3% of global CO₂ emissions but are set to rise substantially. These emissions are one driver of climate change and scientists are concerned that emissions from aviation are at high altitude where they have an amplified effect. There are no plans to limit growth of these emissions apart from statements emanating from inside the industry which do not stand up to rigorous scrutiny.

The social impact of aviation has been extraordinary with people flying regularly, not just for the occasional holiday or business trip but international weekly commuting and weekend breaks. I met a courting couple this weekend, one who lives in the Middle East and works in the UK; the other who lives in Italy. They take flights to spend every other weekend together. Such lifestyle choices have become an expectation which people do not want to lose.

 Aviation is also an integral part of the global economy. Whilst we remain fixated on growing international trade, we require direct regular flights to existing and potential trading partners.

Striking the correct balance between the environmental, social and economic factors is tough. The key to setting policy is to understand timescales. The aviation industry is not like the car industry where changes can take effect within a decade as new models replace the old. In aviation, it takes years to develop a new aircraft which will then remain in production for a couple of decades and remain in the active fleet for three or four decades. Politicians may be slave to the electoral cycle, but their advisors have to have their eyes fixed on 2050 and beyond if we are to get appropriate aviation policy.

The difficult stage is the first stage. Get this wrong and everything that follows is built on unstable foundations. Do the hard work of getting it right from the start and the later stages of implementation are comparatively easy because this is a highly regulated industry. If we decide we want change, it can be enforced. The huge caveat is that this is a global industry which needs a global policy. If the government try to set policy within a UK bubble, it will be the wrong policy.

 There are difficult negotiations ahead which need a guiding principle. Aviation policy affects the advanced economies and the rich within the poorer economies. Therefore there are no grounds for special exemptions for aviation. Politicians should have confidence to face down vested interests to set policy appropriate for the 21^st century.