The next 60 years

Britain is enjoying a 4-day holiday to celebrate the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee with street parties, concerts and community events of all kinds. There is plenty to celebrate since the queen came to the throne in 1952. Wealth has increased; her population of loyal subjects has enlarged; and along with Western Europe Britain has enjoyed a period of relative peace and prosperity.

Whilst we sit back and enjoy the last day of celebration we should reflect on whether the party is finally over. All the wealth and prosperity of recent history has been built on a mountain of debt. Living the good life, whilst borrowing ever more, was always going to end badly. We should be living our lives in balance; spending only what we earn and using only that proportion of our resources as we can easily replace. The last sixty years have been good but have not been in balance. Over the next sixty years we will need to find a new balance to celebrate.

Financial debt at personal and at governmental level is a cause for concern but at least this is a debt that is relatively easy to resolve. When financial debts have ballooned out of control, bankruptcy is a way out. A line can be drawn on the profligacy of the past and a new start made. The countries of southern Europe are likely to take this route with Greece in the vanguard. I have been predicting in this blog since September 2011 that Greece will leave the euro. When it does, it will have the freedom to build a new economy and leave its debts behind. It will not have access to the international debt markets (for a period) and the Drachma will plunge like a stone but its main export (tourism) will boom as the tourists come flooding back.

 The debt we should be much more worried about is ecological debt. Financial debt in the modern financial system is just a series of numbers in bank computers. Writing off debt is not without consequences but this is relatively easily solved. Ecological debt will take decades or centuries or in some cases will never be paid off where species have become extinct.

“God save the queen.” She has our respect for long and loyal service to the Commonwealth; this weekend we have remembered the best of the last 60 years. Now as the celebrations end we need to look at the next 60 years to find a new balance that allows us to continue to thrive. Looking back, we have been measuring success by rising GDP, increasing material wealth and rising consumption. Looking forward we need to measure success by quality of life, stability of the economy and the cohesion of our communities. The best legacy of this Diamond Jubilee would be if it marked the transition from the old era to the new era of sustainability.